Floods, drought top disaster warning list

Heavy floods, storms and droughts top the list of natural disasters that will pose critical economic and social losses to global communities in the future, academics say.

Thanawat Jarupongsakul, head of the Unit for Disaster and Land Information Studies at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Science, said the three key natural disasters are closely linked to climate change.
From 1980-2010, the number of heavy floods, storms and droughts increased dramatically, while the number of earthquake disasters has remained stable.
In 2011, natural catastrophes claimed more than 27,000 lives worldwide, causing damage worth US$38 billion (1.16 trillion baht). Floods and storms accounted for 37% of natural disasters, while earthquakes accounted for 9%. Eighty-five percent of the deaths were in Asia. ''We have seen a definite link between global warming and natural disasters,'' Dr Thanawat said.
Economic losses from natural disasters will rise in the future, especially in instances of flooding.
The worst ever natural disaster in the world was the Yangtze River flood in 1931 which claimed the lives of 3.7 million people [in China],'' Dr Thanawat said. ''But its economic loss was nothing compared to the Chao Phraya River flood [in Thailand] last year, which caused more than 1.4 trillion baht in losses. That could go up to 30 trillion baht over the next 15 years if there are no preventive measures.''
Seree Supharatid, director of Rangsit University's Aschen-Rangsit Institute of Technology, said people should exercise extreme caution by preparing for natural disasters, as early warning systems were seldom enough.
''Even a perfect warning would be useless if people do not know what to do in case of an emergency. An early-warning system in the Indian Ocean was completed in June 2006, but one month later more than 23,000 people died in the Java earthquake,'' he said.
Mr Seree also warned of a possible earthquake along the Myanmar-Andaman fault line, which might have a major impact on Phuket and Phangnga provinces.
Dr Bunchar Pongpanich, a natural disaster management observer, said the government's poor performance in disaster management, as witnessed during last year's floods, exposes Thailand to unnecessary risk.

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