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ជនជាតិខ្មែរកើតនៅលើដីខ្មែរ ត្រូវចេះខំថែជាតិឲ្យបានរុងរឿង កេរ្តិ៍ឈ្មោះជាតិ យើងបានថ្កុំថ្កើង លុះត្រាតែយើងចេះថែរក្សា។ ទោះបីខ្មែររស់នៅប្រទេសណា ចូរកុំភ្លេចថាខ្លួនកើតមកជាខ្មែរ កុំឲ្យបរទេស គេមកបង្វែរ ឲ្យខ្មែរនិងខ្មែរ បែកសាមគ្គីគ្នា ថ្វីបើគេហ៊ានចំណាយ ប្រាក់កាសចាយហូរហៀរយ៉ាងណា ចូរកុំភ្លេច កេរ្តិ៍ឈ្មោះខេមរា រុងរឿងថ្លៃថ្លា តាំងពីបុរាណ ព្រលឹងជាតិនៅគង់វង្សបានយូរ ទាល់តែយើង ស៊ូរួបរួមគ្នាគ្រប់ប្រាណ កសាងជាតិដោយក្តីក្លាហាន នោះជាតិយើងបានស្គាល់ក្តីរុងរឿង។

ខ្មែរស្រឡាញ់ខ្មែរចេះជួយខ្មែរនោះប្រទេសរបស់យើងអាចរីកចំរើនបាន

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Kim Jong Un is not crazy

The U.S. Navy is moving a sea-based radar platform, like the one seen in this 2006 file photo, closer to the North Korean coast in order to monitor that country's military moves, including possible new missile launches, a Defense Department official said Monday, April 1.<!-- -->
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South Korean marines man K-55 self-propelled howitzers at a military training field in the border city of Paju on Monday, April 1. Park Geun-hye, South Korea's new president, promised a strong military response to any North Korean provocation after North Korea announced that the two countries were in a state of war.
South Korean anti-aircraft armored vehicles move across a temporary bridge during a river crossing drill in Hwacheon near the North Korean border on Monday, April 1.
South Korean soldiers ride on a military truck in Paju on Friday, March 29.
The United States said Thursday, March 28, that it flew stealth bombers over South Korea to participate in annual military exercises amid spiking tensions with North Korea. Pictured, a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber flies over South Korea's western port city of Pyeongtaek.
South Korean soldiers gather at the foot of a mountain near a military drill field in the border city of Paju on Wednesday, March 27.
Armed South Korean soldiers walk on a road near a military drill field in Paju on March 27.
South Korean soldiers ride in a military truck in Paju on March 27.
A B-52 bomber flies over the wire-topped fence of a U.S. air base in Osan, South Korea, on Tuesday, March 19.
South Korean soldiers take part in a drill to guard the building of a state-run telecom company in Seoul against potential guerrilla attacks on Thursday, March 14.
South Korean army soldiers jump off a military truck during a drill outside a U.S. airbase in Pyeongtaek as part of annual joint exercises with the United States on March 14.
South Korean Marines operate K-55 self-propelled howitzers on the western island of Ganghwa near the disputed maritime frontier with North Korea on Wednesday, March 13.
South Korean soldiers stand guard as a North Korean soldier, far center, looks on at the truce village of Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone dividing the two Koreas on March 13.
South Korean marines patrol on the South Korea-controlled island of Yeonpyeong near the disputed waters of the Yellow Sea on Tuesday, March 12.
In this Navy handout image taken on March 5, Lt. j.g. Matthew Harmon serves as helm safety officer aboard the guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell during a replenishment at sea, part of Foal Eagle 2013, the joint exercises between the United States and South Korea.
Fire Controlman 2nd Class Jason Titcombe, left, hands Fire Controlman 2nd Class Joshua Clements ordnance aboard the destroyer USS Lassen in this Navy handout photo taken on March 5.
U.S. Navy Boatswain's Mate 3rd Class Brittany Chiles signals to an SH-60B Seahawk helicopter as it lands on the flight deck of the destroyer USS McCampbell on March 4 in the Pacific Ocean, in this Navy handout photo.
This March 17 Navy handout image shows the destroyer USS John S. McCain, front; the Republic of Korea Navy destroyer ROKS Seoae-Yu-Seong-Ryong, center; and the destroyer USS McCampbell moving into formation in the waters off the Korean Peninsula during exercise Foal Eagle 2013.
Editor's note: Stephan Haggard is professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego. He is the co-author of "Famine in North Korea" (2008) and "Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea" (2011) and co-editor with Marcus Noland of a blog about North Korea.
(CNN) -- March brought us a series of what pundits like to call "provocations" by North Korea. On closer inspection, Pyongyang has opted for rhetoric over actual military actions.
While Kim Jong Un's pursuit of nuclear and missile capability remains worrisome, escalating signals of resolve could suggest nervousness as much as strength.
So, is the regime in trouble?

Stephan Haggard
Stephan Haggard
The first round of saber-rattling came as the U.N. Security Council deliberated on a new sanctions resolution after North Korea's satellite launch in December and its third nuclear test in February. The Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a party organ dealing with North-South relations began putting out public statements in an effort to chip away at the institutions of the armistice, such as military hot lines and the stationing of a North Korean military mission in Panmunjom.
 North Korea ultimately "withdrew" from the armistice, but it had done so before and it is not clear what its recent statements actually mean. The armistice is not a peace treaty, but merely a cease fire. The armistice is stable not because of verbal commitments but because of the deterrent capability of both sides.
Is anything really different as a result of this "re-withdrawal"? It doesn't seem like it.
Equally unfortunate was North Korea's decision to renege on a number of North-South agreements, such as a North-South agreement on the denuclearization of the peninsula. But Pyongyang's pursuit of nuclear weapons had made this and a number of other agreements moot in any case.
 North Korea's bluster had little if any effect on the U.N. debate. If anything, its threats may have been counterproductive. Although the resolution was portrayed as the result of a U.S.-South Korean cabal, China also signed on and the resolution was passed unanimously.

The measure opens the door for tighter financial sanctions, and there is some preliminary evidence that Beijing may be cooperating in tightening economic exchanges with the country.
The next round of statements came as North Korea and the United States and South Korea entered an annual military training cycle. These periods are always fraught with tension, as Pyongyang denounces the routine exercises as provocative.
As the country effectively mobilizes, the North Korean press is filled with pictures of Kim Jong Un directing the troops in exercises, some of which were reportedly manipulated with Photoshop to increase their effect.
As a result of these exercises, there is some background of what might be called "ritualized escalation" at work.
But North Korea did possibly make one major misstep in arguing that it might undertake a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Announcing an intention to pre-empt is dangerous because even small tactical movements can be misinterpreted. Needless to say, such statements have to be taken seriously, and, if anything, the United States and South Korea may have over-reacted by such a public display of force.
Furthermore, North Korea's announcement of a major new ballistic missile defense initiative, training runs by B52 and B2 bombers, and an updated US-ROK Combined Counter-Provocation Plan, which has nuclear implications, are worth keeping an eye on. In the last few days, the United States was again quite public about its deployment of jet fighters to the peninsula.
There is a larger game at work here that probably centers on the difficult-to-read domestic politics of North Korea. It is by no means assured that Kim Jong Un has fully consolidated his authority. By ramping up rhetoric, but exercising restraint with respect to actual military actions, the regime can count on the fact that the United States and South Korea are not going to take the first step either.
The result is that North Korea's exercises and threats of retaliation have been successful in deterring attack, even though none was coming. The regime can claim some sort of victory in staring down American threats in its two big political meetings this week, the timing of which suggest that some of the rhetoric has been driven by domestic politics.
North Korea's nuclear and missile programs constitute problems that the five parties in the region—China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the United States—need to address through concerted action. But overheated rhetoric, however disconcerting, is not the same as an intention to attack. Coolly maintaining our deterrent and not over-reacting to hyperbole is the proper course of action. With luck, the leadership will pivot away from nuclear posturing toward economic reform, the main thing that the people of North Korea really need.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Stephan Haggard.



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