"This Party congress has sent a very clear signal that this leadership is politically conservative," said Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution,
who predicted that the lineup wouldn't go down well with the Chinese
people who he said were looking for signs of political reform.
"You can imagine the
Chinese public may start to express some dissatisfaction with the
dominance of princelings (sons of revolutionary leaders), with the elder
and retired top leader Jiang Zemin's interference in the process of
succession, and also that two liberal leaders Li Yuanchao and Wang Yang
are excluded in the new Politburo Standing Committee (PSC)," he said.
As expected, the number
of seats on the PSC shrank from nine members to seven and included the
names at the top of many speculative lists: Xi Jinping (President), Li Keqiang (Premier), Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengshen, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli.
Cheng Li
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"Of these seven people, it's really five-versus-two or maybe even six-versus-one because only two people are Tuanpai," Li said.
Tuanpai are Party members
who rose through the ranks of the Communist Youth League and typically
have ties to outgoing president Hu Jintao.
"One of the Tuanpai
members -- Liu Yunshan -- is actually very close to Jiang Zemin. So this
lack of balance will potentially be a serious problem in the months or
years to come," Li added.
CNN asked Li for his immediate reaction to the lineup and the possible implications for Xi's term as China's new president.
What do you make of the new lineup?
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It is not a surprise but
a disappointment. The disappointment is based on several reasons.
First, apparently there was no intra-party multiple-candidate election
for the politburo and its standing committee. They were still selected
through the old way of "dark-box" manipulation by departing politburo
standing committee members. Also, it's dominated by Jiang Zemin's
protégés, especially the so-called princelings.
Despite a profound sense
of disappointment, I should say there are some positive things coming
out of this leadership transition.
One is that Hu Jintao
stepped down as Chairman of the Central Military Commission, making the
succession more institutionalized and complete. By and large, this
leadership transition is another orderly transition in PRC history. The
leadership change follows the rules and norms of age limits, and the
turnover rates in all leadership bodies are all very high: 64% for the
Central Committee, 77% for the Disciplinary Commission, 68% for the
Secretariat, 71% for the PSC.
The size change (from
nine to seven members of the PSC), including the elimination of the
police czar and the propaganda czar, is a welcome development. These are
all positives but, in my judgment, this leadership lineup does not
generate an uplifting spirit for the nation; I think this is a major
opportunity lost.
Some leaders,
particularly the Tuanpai leaders, will be very unhappy. You need to give
an explanation to the Chinese public why Liu Yuanchao and Wang Yang --
two strong advocates for political reform -- are out.
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Why are they out?
The reason, in my view,
Wang Yang is out because he is seen by many conservative leaders as a
threat. Particularly as Wang's main political rival Bo Xilai is out,
they don't want him to be in -- previously Wang and Bo tended to balance
each other in terms of power, influence and policy preference.
In many ways, both are
very outspoken, very courageous, very innovative in politics -- they
reach out to the public for support -- so in a way, some conservatives
are very scared. In my view, this group of seven leaders is very capable
in economic and financial affairs, but politically they are quite
conservative.
Read more: Bo Xilai stripped of last official title
How long will it take for Xi to make his presence or policies known?
Xi will enter a short
honeymoon period despite all the criticism and worries that have already
emerged. The criticism may not be against him, but rather against Jiang
Zemin, against the dominance of princelings.
He needs to demonstrate
that he can provide new hope and confidence for the public with new
economic policies. He should so relatively quickly. He can't wait too
long because a large number of people are very unhappy with rampant
official corruption and growing economic disparity.
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He needs to do a lot on
the economic front, but I'm a little bit concerned that because of the
composition of the new Politburo Standing Commitee the political reform
will be delayed. These leaders are not famous for political reform --
not like Liu Yuanchao and Wang Yang.
How will Xi rule?
I think he will
emphasize economic reform, to make the middle class happy. And to
promote the private sector, to introduce more economic reform
mechanisms, including banking reform and state-owned enterprise reform,
basically with the goal to promote private sector development.
Some of his team
members, like Wang Qishan, Yu Zhengsheng and Zhang Gaoli, are all pretty
capable in that regard. The problem is that economic reform needs
serious political reform otherwise it can not go too far because of the
political bottleneck. This leadership lineup has sent a very clear
signal that it is politically conservative.
What can Li Keqiang bring as Premier?
In many ways, he's
surrounded by Jiang Zemin's people who will tremendously restrain his
power. There were previously a lot of people who wanted to block him
from the premiership -- that failed. But now even in the state council,
certainly in the standing committee, he's quite alone.
What does it say about the enduring influence of Jiang?
The backlash against
Jiang Zemin will be overwhelming. Yes, Jiang's camp wins many seats in
the Politburo Standing Committee, but in the future they may pay a huge
price for this "victory." The public resentment will be very strong.
These leaders are still selected by old-fashioned, behind the scenes
deal-making and retired leaders' influence, not really through an
intra-party multiple-candidate election. That's a big opportunity
missed. That will undermine their legitimacy and credibility.
Read more: Hu warns of enemy within
Why and how is Jiang still able to wield such influence?
Because of the need to
protect his interests and his family interests. To a certain extent his
protégés also want to have him to help them, in a way. Jiang Zemin is
strong largely because his protégés are in important positions. People
like Xi Jinping, Zhang Dejiang and Wang Qishan, they're already
well-positioned.
Why has Hu failed to be the type of leader who could win out against Jiang's people in the PSC?
It's still too early to
give a well-grounded answer due to a lack of reliable information about
what happened inside Zhongnanhai (Communist Party headquarters in
Beijing).
There are several
possible reasons. One is Hu wants to make a contrast between himself and
Jiang Zemin. Jiang stayed in power for two more years after the
transition at the 16th Party Congress. But Hu wants to immediately give
up that position. So it is an institutional improvement. Secondly, his
volunteering to give up that position makes Jiang's activity to promote
his protégés in the past the past few months very problematic.
The balance in the
Politburo Standing Committee is broken, but the balance in the Politburo
and the Central Military Commission -- between the two camps -- largely
stays intact. There are many of Hu's people in the central committee.
Consequently, this may create structural tensions between these very
important leadership bodies.
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